Introduction

1. Despite a continuing slowdown in the rate of population growth, it is “almost inevitable” that the number of people on the planet will rise from 7.3 billion in 2015 to 9.7 billion in 2050, according to a United Nations projection (World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision).

2. General population growth will impact on education provision, including the number of school places, where these places are and how they are provided. However, where the actual increases occur may be down to more localised factors.

3. Education systems have to cope with changing numbers of students regionally within countries but also nationally, as national populations rise or fall, and local school age populations shift. The reasons behind changes of school age population are complex and vary from both inward migration to internal migration around a country. For example:

• Population movement towards cities/urban areas, although the shift in OECD countries has slowed (Governing the City, OECD 2015);
  
• Regional shifts in a country’s population to wealthier parts of the economy;
  
• Government policy encouraging people to move by promoting industry in certain areas of a country;
  
• Migration from troubled parts of the world, more recently North Africa and Middle East to Europe.
  
• In OECD countries just over 9% of OECD country population are migrants (Trends Shaping Education, OECD 2016);
  
• Adults having children at an older age.

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